Candidates Campaign, Police Rush to Deter Interference
Election Update: October 30, 2024
Moldova Reacts to Sobering News from Georgia
Pro-European forces in Moldova took note of dispiriting news from Georgia’s October 26th parliamentary elections which saw the incumbent Georgian Dream party announce a massive victory against the backdrop of widespread allegations of voter fraud. The nominally pro-EU but overtly pro-Russia Georgian Dream has promised to utilize their victory to ban foreign funded civil society groups as well as their primary opposition parties. The results of the vote massively contradicted both pre-election polls and exit polls conducted by international firms.
The result has led Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili to declare that she is refusing to recognize the results of the election and call for widespread protests. Opposition MPs in a pro-EU coalition are refusing to take their seats in parliament foreshadowing a coming political crisis.
President Maia Sandu spoke with President Zourabichvili expressing her support for Georgia’s EU aspirations and for the protestors in Georgia saying:
"Moldova stands with the people of Georgia, who demonstrate unwavering courage and deep commitment to democracy and freedom. We support their aspiration to strengthen democratic institutions and build a future in line with European values,"
Leader of the Socialist Party Igor Dodon congratulated Georgian Dream on their victory saying:
“We, those from the Republic of Moldova, have something to learn from the lesson of the Georgians in protecting and promoting the National Interest"
Socialist candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo has not commented on the elections.
Following the vote Hungarian President Victor Orban visited Tbilisi congratulating Georgian Dream and echoing key narratives pushed by that party and through Russian influence both in the Georgian and Moldovan elections saying:
“Nobody wants their own country to be destroyed and involved in war. Therefore, we understand the Georgian people’s decision to choose in favor of freedom.” (…)
“I also want to congratulate the Georgian government on that while enforcing pro-European politics, you didn’t allow becoming a second Ukraine.
He noted that Hungarian election observers were "positive in all aspects" about the vote.
While this is not “Georgia Matters” (though it does) the similarities in a small country dealing with massive external interference in a critical election are impossible to ignore. The election “loss” in Georgia and looming political crisis are being looked at warily in Moldova as citizens and politicians navigate the final week of the runoff campaign.
Campaign Updates
Here’s a roundup of the top stories from the ongoing campaign:
President Sandu signals major changes in justice reform efforts. In various statement, including at the Moldova 1 TV debate (which Alexandr Stoianoglo did not attend) the President acknowledged failures in justice reform saying: "I heard from citizens that it was necessary to act more harshly. (...) International practices of justice reform have proven ineffective for Moldova, where corruption has penetrated too deeply."1 She said that they have learned that justice reform "cannot be carried out with white gloves" and stated that “radical new measures” would be introduced after the election. She discussed it in the context of the failures of the justice system to protect the country from widespread financial interference saying that corrupt members of the judiciary "have actually betrayed the country and jeopardized its future."
Igor Dodon and the Socialist Party announced that they do not recognize the outcome of the referendum. The Socialist leader said the referendum was decided by "Several thousand Moldovan citizens who have been living in the USA and Canada for several decades" calling it illegitimate and stated that a new referendum can be held at any time - even next year.
Parties and leaders announce endorsements. The Communist Party announced support for Alexandr Stoianoglo saying that the most important thing is to defeat Maia Sandu. The extra parliamentary National Moldova Party announced support for President Sandu. Renato Usatii refused to endorse either candidate saying that he will not vote in the election. At the same time he called on his supporters to each “take responsibility for their vote” and to “act as you think is right.” In explaining his reasoning he addressed Maia Sandu saying that “after four years of your mandate and three years of the PAS government, I and Our Party cannot provide you with any support." Usatii reserved much harsher words for the Socialist Party and Igor Dodon saying that they have “been trying to destroy Our Party since 2014” and recounting multiple instances of Igor Dodon collaborating with Vladimir Plahotniuc against him and his party.
President Sandu made an appeal to Usatii’s Voters saying:
"Dear citizens who voted for Renato Usatîi, thank you for voting and believing in the power of voting. Unfortunately, vote stealing has affected us all. It will affect you too. If votes were not stolen, today, possibly, Renato Usatîi would have been my opponent.
Dear supporters of Renato Usatîi, I know you are unhappy. But now let us join forces and not allow a dirty fighting regime to return to power. So that your votes are respected, so that the votes of the Moldovans decide the fate of the country, and not the dirty money"
Fugitive oligarch Veaceslav Platon called on his supporters "not to vote for someone, but against someone." In what is becoming a theme at Moldova Matters he framed the election as a referendum on Maia Sandu and (among many horrible personal attacks) claimed that re-electing Sandu would result in a situation where the "country will no longer exist." Platon, Shor and Dodon are 3 of the most high profile defendants in criminal corruption trials and they have all now leant their voices in support of a supposedly honest prosecutor.
President Sandu appealed to mayors to support her candidacy saying:
"Resources are not coming from Russia. My opponent could not name a single project that Russia financed. (…) If we miss the chance to get closer to Europe, we will not have financial assistance for the construction of water and sewer networks, for kindergartens, schools and roads. I want all mayors, regardless of their party affiliation, to have these opportunities. After all, when we have resources, everyone uses them. And when we don't, no one has them,"
The Scope of the Shadow Campaign
While the campaign rolls towards Sunday’s runoff a dark cloud hangs over all the political meetings, rallies and statements - Russian money. No election in modern European history has ever seen such a mismatch between local campaign spending and foreign direct financial interference.
In the first round of the presidential elections President Sandu’s campaign spent $558,000 dollars on the campaign. All registered candidates taken together, including those backed by Shor, spent a combined total of $1.73 million dollars campaigning. The PAS Party spent an additional $200,000 supporting the EU referendum.
Meanwhile, police have identified over $39 million dollars spent in September and October by Ilan Shor’s network. This *only* counts money transferred via the Russian PSB Bank app used to directly bribe voters - and *only* what the police have tracked so far. This does not count online advertising, disinformation spending, call centers outside of the country (allegedly in Russia and Turkey) coordinating “activists” inside Moldova. It does not count the money spent before the campaign setting up the candidates, building amusement parks or funding the network of illicitly paid party agents for years.
In some sense the international reporting about this election has treated these 2 parallel realities, the campaign and the interference, as separate issues when they are really one big thing. An “unfair fight” as President Sandu called it. Financial discrepancies of this nature, when viewed through the lens simply of a campaign, bring things more into focus - this is a David vs Goliath fight but Goliath stands 100 meters tall.
This election may well be turned on law enforcement efforts at minimizing the influence of this money in round 2. Here’s what they’re doing on that front…
Police Race to Interdict the Shor Network
Here’s a roundup of stories in the cat and mouse game against election interference:
Police have issued 2 million lei in fines as of October 30th. These fines are primarily for people who sold their votes and police announced over 1000 cases ongoing. Daily announcements have seen this number tick up by around 200 cases per day and police stress that many people are cooperating in order to avoid the fines.
SMS warnings against voter bribery are being sent out. Police have announced that with the cooperation of telecom providers they are sending SMS warnings explaining the consequences of buying or selling votes. Citizens who sell their vote face up to 37,500 lei in fines, those who offer money for a vote face 57,000 lei in fines and up to 5 years in prison. Police warn that people who cannot afford the fines risk having their assets seized.2
Bishop Marchel of Balti was fined 3500 lei for election campaigning. The fine comes in the context of the Bishop calling on congregants to vote for Victoria Furtuna. Election campaigning by the church is prohibited by law in Moldova. The Bishop’s spokesman said that he will not contest the fine.
Prosecutor General Ion Munteanu stated that funds transferred via the PSB app were coordinated by Russian special services. The Prosecutor General stated that 140,000 accounts held by Moldovan citizens with PSB are being tracked and that "I declare with full responsibility that law enforcement agencies will call everyone who received transfers from Russia or cash for their vote." He also noted that the mechanism of this scheme was partially intended as a way to overwhelm Moldova’s justice system. In total 35 people have been charged, 28 detained and 50 million lei confiscated in searches in the past week.
A doctor “assisted” elderly people in voting. In a nursing home mobile voting station in Comrat a doctor filled out ballots for 25 residents, at times not even showing them who they were voting for. When asked he told voters "We need a dad and a mom, not [parent] one and two," and asked them if they wanted to vote for "Europe" or for "home." In many cases he simply told them they were voting for candidate #1 (Alexandr Stoianoglo). After investigations by police the doctor was found to have received multiple wire transfers from Russia on the PSB app. He has been arrested and faces 5 years in prison.
Aunty Raia was placed under house arrest after ZdG investigation.3 Searches by the police and Anti-Corruption Prosecutors resulted in the arrests of “Sasha” (Alexandr Martinovici), “Oleg” (former police offiver Oleg Crîlov) and Aunty Raia for illicit party financing. Following her house arrest Aunty Raia, who apparently had a criminal record predating these events, gave an exclusive interview to Moldova 1 TV station where she said she regrets her involvement in the criminal enterprise and that she did not know how dangerous it was. She claims that despite many promises she was only paid once (the amount she extorted from the ZdG reporter posing as a party “activist”) and refused to speak about how many people she recruited or other Shor network activities. She called on voters to “vote how they want” in the 2nd round.
Ilan Shor sends “activists” instructions on how to manage police searches. These instructions go out via small regional Telegram groups which evaded the company’s crackdown on the Shor network. In the instructions he tells supporters not to consent to searches without a warrant, not to freely go to questioning, don’t sign anything, etc.
The Case of “Shor’s List”
In addition to police action Moldova has had to cope with one particularly messy public “revelation” in an atmosphere of paranoia.4 The “revelation” was a list of 3789 names with addresses and contact details of supposed Shor party activists. The list was leaked simultaneously to many news outlets in Moldova anonymously from someone who says they are an “officer and I respect my profession.” It came with a letter claiming that the police and SIS officers are doing their jobs tracking this network but that they are being foiled by corrupt prosecutors and judges. The sender alleges that this list contains most top Shor leaders regionally and that the authorities were able to track payments to them and instructions to vote “No” in the referendum and for Stoianoglo or Furtuna in the presidential election.
Many news outlets including ZdG printed the list after removing phone numbers and concrete addresses - just leaving districts and towns. Some outlets such as Newsmaker did not print the list.
Prosecutor General Ion Munteanu gave a press conference denying the idea that prosecutors5 are slowing down investigations and stating that police and prosecutors are cooperating well in this effort. When asked he noted that the leaker could face civil or criminal charges.
The leaking of the list caused major harassment and threats online against these alleged members of the Shor network. In a totally unrelated situation the mayor of a small town also posted a list of names alongside how much these people had donated to help rebuild the stone wall next to the town’s cemetery. Vigilantes online conflated these lists launching a campaign of harassment against the people who supported the wall’s renovation.
In an Op-Ed for Newsmaker journalist Nikolay Pakholnitsky said that the release of the list without thorough fact checking had led to mass bullying. He said that while there were many names on the list who were clearly Shor affiliates (some who have been arrested already) he was able to identify people he knew not to be. He called for calm saying:
“…if, in the wake of such hysteria, someone decides to take justice into their own hands, the responsibility for this will also fall on the media and public figures who actively reposted these lists. Are you prepared to take on that responsibility?”
Minister of Infrastructure Andrei Spinu echoed these ideas calling on people not to blame those that took bribes or to make public accusations against them…
"Instead, each of us can find at least one person who sold their vote and explain to them the risks this poses for our country. It will not be easy, but this is the right thing to do"
The story of the “lists” captures a moment in Moldova this week where things feel incredibly uncertain. Those who see the massive Russian interference have shifted from stunned to angry - sometimes at their neighbors. This Sunday’s election will determine the country’s next president. But the manner in which the election is won or lost will also foreshadow Moldova’s political future - and whether or not the country is tipping into political crisis like Georgia.
I wrote about the problems inherent in Moldova’s approach to justice reform and some path’s not taken in a Perspective article in September.
Note: in many rural villages 37,500 lei is likely to be higher than the value of a family’s house and land.
We wrote about the story of the undercover investigation by ZdG before the election
Moldovans have sought, often vainly, to explain to the outside world how much attention and energy Russia is giving the country. Many foreign journalists and commentators have told me that they feel everyone in Moldova is a bit paranoid. In some sense this is true - but “Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t after you”
No one is denying that judges are not being helpful in this situation.
Great coverage, David. Your detailing of the funding figures involved in the shadow campaign is extremely illuminating.