Quick Hit - Is Russia going to Invade Moldova in the New Year?

December 22, 2022

Hello and welcome back to Moldova Matters! With the Christmas holiday approaching we’re not doing a full Weekly Roundup this week but will be back next week to catch up. Instead, we’re going to do a Quick Hit article focusing on the recent comments of Moldova’s spy chief about threats to Moldova in the new year.

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A Threat of Invasion in 2023?

This week, Alexandru Musteata, the director of Moldova’s Security and Information Service SIS, gave an interview where he asserted that there was a threat of invasion from Russia in the coming months. Coming from Moldova’s top intelligence official this interview caused widespread confusion and lots of calls for clarification from across the Moldovan public and civil society - not to mention quite a lot of emails from Moldova Matters readers asking for clarification. We’re going to look at what he said, evaluate the claims and then track the fallout.

In the interview on TV station TVR Moldova, Director Musteata said the following:

“The question is not whether the Russian Federation will launch a new offensive in the direction of Moldovan territory, but when it will happen: either at the beginning of the year, in January, February, or later, in March, April. But, judging by the information we have, Russia can go further to create a corridor with the Transnistrian region, which is the territory of Moldova. Then it will be possible to say with clarity that yes, they intend to get here, to unite. What will follow, their intentions towards Chisinau, we can discuss, but this is a real and very high risk,”

He went on to discuss the threat of Russian troops moving towards Moldova in the context of an offensive into Northern Ukraine. In this scenario, Russian troops would move South to link with Transnistria at the massive ammunition depot of Cobasna which they will utilize in their ongoing war.

The interview instantly garnered substantial attention in both Moldovan and international press, including being a trending topic on Twitter (a platform rarely used in Moldova). The reason for the attention is fairly clear. Firstly, it discusses the threat as imminent - perhaps even in January. Secondly, almost all reporting and expert analysis say that Russia is unlikely to make even small offensives in the coming months, begging the question - does the SIS Director know something we don’t?

Analysis - How real is this threat?

Firstly, it’s important to remember just how close the war is to Moldova. Russian missiles and drones regularly fly close to Moldova to strike Ukrainian critical infrastructure. Just this week a passenger on a WizzAir flight departing Chisinau posted this video showing the distant explosions in Ukraine from Moldovan airspace.

NEXTA @nexta_tv

A video of the #Russian missile attacks on #Ukraine from the window of an airplane flying over #Moldova.

Proximity of bombings however does not imply actual Russian troop movements on the ground. Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, designed to freeze Ukrainian civilians this winter, are an admission that they are unable to break through Ukrainian lines with conventional military forces.

Most experts agree that Russia is unlikely to be able to mount any real offensives this winter. Russian troops have been badly mauled this year including the wholesale destruction of what were considered elite Russian units before the war. Newly mobilized conscripts are lacking in basic equipment, not to mention training and morale. In almost all sectors Russian troops are digging in to try and hold off potential Ukrainian counteroffensives in the winter months.

Most importantly, as we have discussed many times at Moldova Matters, the key to Moldova’s defenses is the Ukrainian port city of Odessa. At the beginning of the war Russia attempted a lightning strike to take the southern coast but stalled at the outskirts of Mykolaiv. In recent months, with Ukraine’s recapture of Kherson it is clear that Russia has no ability to advance in the south. The Dnieper river now sits between the combatants providing a major natural barrier that will be hard for Ukraine to cross, and likely impossible for Russia to cross.

So we have a situation where Russia is unlikely to be militarily capable of a major offensive anywhere, and one where their way to Moldova is blocked in the south. But Director Musteata talked about an imminent offensive from the North.

An attack from the North?

At face value, things seem ever more improbable with this idea. In order for Moldova to be threatened from the North, Russian troops would need to attack and capture Kyiv, advance South through multiple major regional cities, and then link with Transnistria. Absolutely no analyst writing about the war right now believes they are capable of that and there have been no moves of military equipment towards the border of Belarus that would substantiate this claim.

That said, the Ukrainian authorities have been talking about just this threat for some weeks. The country’s leadership has raised the idea of a renewed offensive towards Kyiv multiple times as a real possibility this winter. Putin’s recent trip to Minsk to meet with Belarusian President Lukashenko, his first such visit in 3 years, heightened worries that Belarus might enter the war on Russia’s side for this offensive.

While it’s impossible to make firm predictions about what Putin’s next major blunder might be, it is hard to see this really happening. Lukashenko has shown no interest in sending Belarusian troops into Ukraine. Even if he did, there is no clarity that Belarus, which has a much more poorly equipped army than Russia, would have any ability to make gains against Ukrainian positions. Finally, while Russia has moved some troops and equipment into Belarus in recent weeks for exercises, the story of the last year is actually one of Belarusian equipment and ammunition being shipped out of the country and into Russia to make up for the ammunition shortfalls of the Russian army.

The only sign that would point towards there being an imminent threat from the north is the weather. The land between Kyiv and Belarus is mostly swampy marshlands. Because Russia delayed their invasion until after the end of the olympics in China they found themselves driving right into mud-season last spring. If they wanted to attempt another attack on Kyiv it would likely have to be when the ground is frozen solid.

Taken together, the idea that Russia will attack Ukraine from the north in the near future is highly improbable. The idea that they will have a blitzkrieg like success such that they can threaten Moldova from the north in the next 1-3 months is ridiculous.

So what was this statement?

Simply put, we can call the interview from SIS Director Musteata a communications blunder. Shortly after giving the interview, Director Musteata and SIS have put out multiple statements attempting to clarify what he meant. These have also been somewhat unclear. Here is an example of a recent clarification:

" The war in Ukraine, unfortunately, will continue in 2023 and it will not end in 2022. It is a risk that affects us as well. As we see it, the Russian Federation will attempt a new offensive towards the West. Offensive to the West assumes that they have a clear objective where they want to continue the fight. They set this goal since February 24. This objective has not been changed since then until today (…). The information held by the SIS, together with its partners, indicates that in 2023 we can expect with high probability a new offensive on the territory of Ukraine towards the West.“

While this statement clearly states that SIS expects a new Russian offensive next year, the Northern attack vector and the timeline of January to April, have been removed.

Our analysis is that the SIS Director intended to stress the following ideas, but harmed his message and credibility by adding specific predictions.

1. Russia intended to advance through Ukraine to Moldova when they invaded in February. They clearly intended to link with Transnistria and their intentions towards Chisinau were unclear but menacing.

2. Russia has not reduced their overall war aims in spite of battlefield setbacks.

3. The war isn’t over yet and Russia still thinks they can attain their maximum goals.

These points are clearly true. But by adding in an imminent timeframe, as well as the unexplained norther attack vector, Director Musteata actually distracted from his ability to clearly state that there is an ongoing threat by making outlandish hypothetical predictions.

Local and International Reactions

The timing of the interview coincided with a visit of Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu to Chisinau. This meant that in a press conference with the Moldovan Foreign Minister, Minister Aurescu was asked to comment on the threat to Moldova. He forcefully rejected it saying that Romania had no such information and that:

“The war that Russia is waging in a neighboring state is unsuccessful. We see that Russia is on the defensive, and Ukraine is showing pretty good results in the theater of operations. As a result, I do not believe in such constructions that would currently threaten Moldova,”

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis also commented confirming that Romania had no such information.

Asked about the statement, Prime Minister Gavrilita noted that "We prepare for any scenario" before saying that “These are all the same risks that we saw earlier, they are all associated with the war in Ukraine.” She went on to say that the government shares information about all threats with the public.

The Russian Foreign Ministry commented as well saying:

“The hope to get additional financial support from Western sponsors by throwing in yet another horror story has not materialized. But Alexandru Mustiata managed to draw attention to the Moldovan agenda, albeit with a bold minus sign,”

Ok, so this was just a blundered interview?

Yup, pretty much. Responding to a reporter’s question about the whole situation the Romanian Foreign Minister indirectly conveyed a valuable lesson in political communication to the SIS Director saying “I don’t engage in hypotheticals.” At the most basic, this was a communications blunder where the SIS Director engaged in a hypothetical conversation that discounted the most critical factor in Moldovan security - the Ukrainian Army. This made Director Musteata the center of a news cycle that he and his agency rapidly tried to end by backpedaling his comments.

At the same time, a communications blunder does not mean this was a case of the SIS Director showing himself to be wildly uninformed. Russia does still believe it can conquer Ukraine and impose its will in Moldova. Ukrainian Generals openly speculate about a winter offensive in the North. No one knows if Belarus will enter this war. At the core, Director Musteata was emphasizing that Moldova faces multiple threats from a Russia that is set on military aggression. It’s unfortunate that most people’s take away will be dismissing his hypotheticals as foolish and missing the underlying facts - this war isn’t done yet and Russia absolutely has designs on Moldovan territory.